Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.239976 1.406619 1.583047 1.783302 2.003836 2.238832 2.507708
2025-01-26 1.020200 1.250363 1.509140 1.819940 2.181288 2.586333 3.072782
2025-02-02 0.845608 1.116647 1.439307 1.847689 2.346404 2.931082 3.663449
2025-02-09 0.694796 0.988966 1.359578 1.853074 2.484441 3.256112 4.260502
2025-02-16 0.574837 0.882079 1.291432 1.863881 2.629179 3.601364 4.911776
2025-02-23 0.458980 0.762137 1.190108 1.818978 2.697126 3.855350 5.469693
2025-03-02 0.355941 0.642534 1.072253 1.736324 2.704755 4.029882 5.937477
2025-03-09 0.292618 0.571852 1.014788 1.731525 2.818186 4.354020 6.627836
2025-03-16 0.236074 0.501175 0.946709 1.701750 2.891182 4.625919 7.264171
2025-03-23 0.204434 0.467571 0.933014 1.754048 3.090360 5.091453 8.203501
2025-03-30 0.161940 0.404442 0.859634 1.700036 3.118733 5.305979 8.791418
2025-04-06 0.132548 0.360337 0.812644 1.683752 3.204015 5.610003 9.527955
2025-04-13 0.105630 0.315846 0.759926 1.655047 3.273271 5.905370 10.288705
2025-04-20 0.090450 0.294145 0.748133 1.699234 3.469960 6.415781 11.412113
2025-04-27 0.076714 0.272128 0.732022 1.733301 3.652076 6.914904 12.547275
2025-05-04 0.063591 0.247582 0.706070 1.744656 3.794150 7.356778 13.615521
2025-05-11 0.052920 0.226329 0.683570 1.759928 3.944331 7.821273 14.745192
2025-05-18 0.041437 0.197941 0.638336 1.720971 3.987592 8.103443 15.587020
2025-05-25 0.030817 0.167239 0.580218 1.644961 3.950364 8.240001 16.188923
2025-06-01 0.024942 0.150946 0.556302 1.642718 4.059360 8.643822 17.266803
2025-06-08 0.019482 0.133200 0.524088 1.616037 4.114966 8.952108 18.191965
2025-06-15 0.016910 0.126892 0.524056 1.667668 4.339072 9.585274 19.717222
2025-06-22 0.012682 0.109535 0.485625 1.617004 4.338288 9.792626 20.490334